The shake out within the UK financial services industry following Brexit will not benefit a single city, delegates heard at the annual conference of the European Association for Investors in Non-listed Real Estate Vehicles (INREV).
More likely is a dispersion of London-based employees to several European urban centres, said Peter Leyburn, EMEA director of client services at Colliers International.
鈥淢any banks already have second homes 鈥� for example, Standard Chartered in Dublin and Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt,鈥� he said.
Leyburn believes the German city 鈥� the subject of a recent 鈥� has taken an 鈥渆arly lead, but nowhere near the level you鈥檇 expect鈥�.
Colliers has researched the attractiveness of European cities in terms of cost and quality of life, and Paris and Frankfurt both scored highly. But Leyburn said no 鈥渟ingle city can accommodate 100,000 jobs鈥�, referring to last year鈥檚 estimates for job losses in London.
Matthew Elliott, senior fellow at the Legatum Institute, a think thank, and former chief executive of the Vote Leave referendum campaign, said New York or Hong Kong are likely competitors to London.
Technology will be much more damaging for the City than Brexit in the coming years, said Karel Lannoo, chief executive of the Centre for European Policy Studies.
Leyburn agreed: 鈥淧olitics is only one factor.鈥�
He added that some London-based banks have created working teams 鈥� but for now have chosen to exclude real estate teams.
鈥淭hey are not sitting in the room at the moment,鈥� he said. 鈥淥ccupiers are as uncertain as we are.鈥�
Elliott 鈥� regarded as the mastermind of the UK鈥檚 Brexit vote last June 鈥� said London will 鈥渢hrive for many years to come鈥�.
The City of London, however, 鈥渃ould be the toughest area of negotiation鈥�, he said, although a UK-EU deal in this area will be 鈥渕utually beneficial鈥�. He added: 鈥淒ifficulties will be overcome.鈥�
In a straw poll, 82% of INREV delegates did not think the UK has a clear negotiating position, while 74% said they are not optimistic for positive outcome from UK-EU negotiations.
However, Lannoo said fragmentation is 鈥渁 cost for all of us鈥�. He said 鈥渢he UK will suffer much more than the EU鈥�, pointing to the high loss in GDP per capita to be borne by the UK from Brexit.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a very difficult issue ideologically and I don鈥檛 think we will have a deal.鈥�
For economist Anders Borgs, the 鈥渂iggest negative impact is less free trade and a less dynamic Europe鈥�.
He said: 鈥淪o the likes of Sweden and Germany could face the biggest problems. The UK will go well, with growth slightly higher than euro-zone鈥�.
The prospect of other European countries attempting to leave the European Union is unlikely, Lannoo ventured.
鈥淰ery few states allow themselves to do what the UK has done,鈥� he said, despite growing levels of pessimism about the union鈥檚 future in Italy and France.
鈥淭he big question mark remains France,鈥� he said. 鈥淢ore people [56%] in France are negative on the EU than in the UK [51%].鈥�
Italy, he said, has also become eurosceptic and pessimistic about the future of EU.
In a separate poll, 54% of INREV delegates selected political risk as the biggest threat to Europe this year.
In his keynote speech, Borg said: 鈥淭his year will be fine, we鈥檙e not going to see Le Pen.
鈥淏ut go to the next election, without improvements of living standards, then you will see populism has grown.鈥�
