Attendees at this year鈥檚 Urban Land Institute (ULI) Europe Conference in London received a stark yet encouraging outlook from Bronwen Maddox of Chatham House as she declared that a return to 鈥渘ormal鈥� was not on the horizon.
In her keynote on geopolitics and global markets, the director and CEO of the international affairs think tank talked about the deep 鈥渞oots of the uncertainty鈥� that demanded a strategic shift towards identifying worst-case scenarios while simultaneously seeking out opportunities.
Despite the current global instability, Maddox highlighted a compelling 鈥渃onversation about leapfrogging鈥� in many nations, particularly through technological advancements like artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technology, which shows how 鈥減eople are finding solutions鈥� and quickly adjusting to this challenging environment.
鈥淚t isn鈥檛 going to be normal again. I think that time has gone,鈥� she said, adding that the forces driving today鈥檚 instability have been 鈥渓ong time running鈥� and 鈥済o much, much deeper鈥� than any single political figure or crisis.
According to Maddox, this change is reflected in the 鈥減aralysing鈥� uncertainty that now complicates decision-making in both professional and personal lives, making it 鈥渞emarkable how difficult that has become鈥�.
The growing rivalry between the US and China is a key reason for this uncertainty, Maddox said. 鈥淭he US has never had a rival quite like this,鈥� she said and highlights China鈥檚 unique position as an 鈥渋deological rival鈥�, an economic powerhouse, technological competitor and a military contender.
She said that, under president Xi Jinping, China is overtly saying, 鈥榣ook, we have a completely different way of organising relations between people, between people and their government, and we can balance it better 鈥� and we鈥檙e quietly going to try and make sure the rules of the world, governance of the world tilt our way and suit us, not suit the West.鈥�
Beyond the actions of major powers, Maddox also touched on the downsides of globalisation. She agreed it had 鈥渓ifted millions of people out of poverty鈥� and was 鈥渁 huge engine for reducing inequality between countries鈥�. However, its major flaw was that 鈥渢he benefits were not within countries distributed very evenly, which is making countries very difficult to run鈥�. This imbalance within nations, fuels 鈥渕uch of the engine of the populism鈥� seen globally.
However, Maddox urged attendees 鈥渘ot to lose sight of the creativity鈥� transforming many areas, especially AI. She spoke of excited medical professionals predicting that AI will 鈥渄o so much to improve our lives, to reduce the risk and the fear that everyone feels about health and their own personal lives鈥�. This innovation highlights that 鈥減eople are smart and finding ways to fix that鈥�.
She said 鈥渃ompanies and commercial life have all the advantages over governments鈥�, moving faster and being less constrained by voter sentiment. 鈥淚n all this uncertainty, it is not the worst place to be running a commercial company,鈥� she concluded.
Global shifts: trade tensions and new alliances
The US administration鈥檚 鈥渟taggering portrait of activity鈥� of unpredictable and 鈥渆normously disruptive鈥� tariff policies potentially undermines the country鈥檚 competitiveness and scientific innovation and could see it 鈥渟urrendering so many of its influences around the world鈥�, potentially leaving a vacuum for China, Maddox said.
Europe, meanwhile is experiencing 鈥渁 new sense of urgency鈥� on security and competitiveness, grappling with its slow pace of decision-making, she said. However, new alliances are forming and the UK, post-Brexit, is finding a 鈥渟lightly different鈥� path, fostering 鈥渕iddle power alliances鈥� with countries like Nigeria, Korea and New Zealand.
鈥淚t isn鈥檛 going to be normal again,鈥� Maddox said. 鈥淲e have to look for where the worst cases are, and then try and minimise and also look for opportunities鈥�.
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